According to the latest report by market research agency TrendForce, due to the vagaries of the epidemic and the slow resumption of manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, the production shortage caused by the epidemic in the second quarter will be difficult for ODM factories to fill in the second half of the year. At present, high inflation has led to high prices, which does not help support the demand in the peak season in the second half of the year. Among them, consumer products such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and TVs have a significant impact, resulting in a decline in consumer-regulated MLCC demand and rising market inventory. , the agency believes that the average inventory level of each size is more than 90 days, and it is estimated that the average price of consumer-standard MLCC in the second half of the year may drop by another 3-6%.

However, demand for automotive, HPC high-speed computing (including servers), Netcom equipment, industrial automation, energy storage system equipment, etc. is still stable, coupled with the slowdown in demand for consumer products in the second half of the year, driving semiconductor IDM manufacturers to gradually shift production capacity, which is expected to relieve Solve the problem of IC shortage and support customers in pulling goods for automotive, industrial control, and high-end MLCCs. TrendForce estimates that in the second half of the year, under the support of demand for automotive, server, and Netcom products, the overall MLCC shipments will reach approximately 2,580 billion, an increase of 2% compared to the same period last year.

The price and volume of consumer products fell together, and the quotations of MLCC for automobile and industrial regulations remained stable

The survey pointed out that from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the average annual price of consumer-regulated MLCC dropped by 5~10%. %, and some low-end consumer MLCC prices have even touched the cost of materials. From the perspective of the past MLCC supply and demand cycle process, the supply and demand turning point often occurs after the continuous increase in price and volume, or after the price and volume decline. For two consecutive quarters, both volume and price declined in tandem. In the second half of 2022, the pressure on the quotation of MLCC for consumer regulations has not decreased, and it may continue to decline. It is estimated that there will still be an average decline of 3-6%. On the contrary, the price of MLCC with industrial regulations is the opposite. It is expected that under the relief of the shortage of client chips, the momentum of pulling goods will increase, and the decline rate will remain at 1~2%, or even the same, while the price of MLCC with automobile regulations, which belong to the annual quotation, is Keep prices stable.

Worrying about the impact of the ups and downs of the consumer product market, manufacturers expand their layout

Murata and TDK have a market share of nearly 80% in the automotive MLCC market. In addition to continuing to expand automotive production capacity, they are also actively taking root in MLCC parts application services. Through collaborative customer design, they have further improved to module application services. To increase customer stickiness. At present, the two suppliers have started to provide services such as Image sensor module (Image sensor module) and IPA module (Intelligent parking assist) in the automotive powertrain (Powertrain) and ADAS advanced driver assistance system.

Samsung has also passed the verification of car manufacturers this year, and will gradually increase the vehicle production capacity of the Tianjin factory from the third quarter; Yageo is located in the Dafa plant in Kaohsiung, and is expected to start production line verification in the fourth quarter, mainly expanding industrial-grade high-voltage products and automotive 22u The following large-sized products such as 0805 and 1210 are expected to be mass-produced at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with an initial monthly production capacity of about 8 to 10 billion. In addition, we will continue to provide comprehensive services through various products such as MLCC, resistors, inductors, and antenna modules. Expand the application of high-end products such as military industry, Netcom, automotive, medical and so on.

TrendForce believes that although the manufacturing industry in East China in mainland China has resumed operations one after another, Shanghai's overseas and air freight ports are fully recovering, accelerating the shipment of finished products from ODM factories. With the gradual return of logistics to normal, the problem of long and short materials is expected to be greatly improved, which will further push up the market. The third quarter pulls the momentum. However, global geopolitical conflicts, epidemics, and high inflation may evolve into stagnant inflation issues, etc., which will become the main variables affecting the MLCC market in the second half of 2022.